EV market share dropped from double digits to 5.2% in October. One month. That’s what happens when you take away $7,500 in federal subsidies and force people to pay actual market prices.
The interesting part isn’t the drop – everyone saw that coming. It’s watching which companies are still selling cars. GM’s Equinox EV is up 156% while Ford’s losing $1.4 billion a quarter on their EV division. Rivian’s stock jumped 30% in November while Lucid hit new lows. The subsidy was hiding who could actually build a sustainable EV business, and now we’re finding out.
December’s when you want to be positioned for this, because the panic selling is over and the actual data’s coming in. Here’s what I’m seeing.
GM’s Equinox EV Is Quietly Eating Everyone’s Lunch
I’ll be honest – I did not have “General Motors becomes the smart EV play” on my 2025 bingo card. But here we are. The Chevrolet Equinox EV sold over 25,000 units in Q3, up 156% from the previous quarter. That’s not a typo.
General Motors (GM)
What GM figured out that everyone else missed is pretty simple: most people don’t want a $100,000 electric truck or a minimalist tech pod. They want a normal-looking SUV that happens to be electric, costs around $35,000, and has enough range that they’re not doing mental math every time they drive to their in-laws. The Equinox EV is exactly that, and it’s working.
Yeah, they just announced layoffs – 1,700 permanent positions and another 1,600 temporary workers. That sucks. But it’s also what happens when you’re a real manufacturing company adjusting to actual market conditions instead of burning through VC money while promising the moon. They’re targeting 8-10% margins and planning to hit 100,000 annual EV sales by 2027. Those aren’t sexy numbers, but they’re real ones.
The stock’s boring. The company’s boring. That’s exactly why I like it right now.
Ford’s EV Division Is a Disaster
Ford lost $1.4 billion on EVs in Q3. Not for the year – just Q3. They’re now at $3.6 billion in losses for 2025 so far, and they’re cutting production by 100,000 vehicles heading into Q4. CEO Jim Farley’s basically punting to 2027, saying the market will be “more favorable” then.
Ford Motor Company (F)
That’s not a strategy. That’s hoping the problem goes away.
The F-150 Lightning has its fans, and I get the appeal of an electric truck that still looks like a truck. But when your EV unit is losing money at this rate and you don’t have a clear path to profitability, you’re just subsidizing early adopters with shareholder money. At some point, the board’s going to ask why they’re doing this.
I’m staying away until Ford can show me they’ve figured something out. Right now, they haven’t.
Tesla’s Stuck
Tesla’s trading around $410 with a $1.3 trillion market cap, and honestly, I don’t know what to do with it anymore. Q3 revenue was up 12% year-over-year, which is fine. The problem is that “fine” doesn’t justify a trillion-dollar valuation.
Tesla (TSLA)
The Model 3 and Y are getting old. The Cybertruck was supposed to be this huge thing and it’s… not. Robotaxis are still a promise, not a product. Meanwhile, companies like GM are building EVs that normal people actually want to buy, and BYD’s eating Tesla’s lunch globally.
I’m not saying Tesla’s going to zero. I’m saying that at this valuation, you’re paying for a level of future dominance that looks less certain every quarter. If you own it, fine. But I’m not buying more here.
Rivian Might Actually Pull This Off
Rivian’s stock jumped over 30% in November, and for once, it wasn’t just hype. They posted record Q3 deliveries and ended the quarter with $7.1 billion in cash. More importantly, they’re launching the R2 in early 2026.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
The R2 is the vehicle that matters. It’s priced at $45,000 instead of the R1T’s six-figure sticker, and it’s aimed at actual volume instead of wealthy early adopters. Rivian’s smart enough to know they can’t survive selling $100,000 trucks to tech workers forever. They need scale, and the R2 is how they get there.
They’re even phasing out the R1 line to focus everything on the R2 launch. That’s the kind of focus that broke companies can’t afford to have, but companies with $7 billion in the bank can. If the R2 works, Rivian becomes a real automaker. If it doesn’t, well, at least they tried something different than “let’s build another luxury EV for people who already own three cars.”
This is still a high-risk bet. But it’s the startup bet I’d make if I’m making one.
Lucid’s Running Out of Runway
Lucid just hit a new 52-week low, and despite raising another $975 million in convertible notes, I’m not seeing the path forward. Q3 revenue was up 68%, which sounds great until you realize they’re still burning cash faster than they’re making it.
Lucid Group (LCID)
The Saudi backing keeps them alive, but that’s not an investment thesis. That’s life support. They need a mass-market vehicle, and they need it soon. The ultra-luxury EV market is tiny, and they’re competing with established brands that have dealer networks and service infrastructure.
I’m out. There are better places to put money.
BYD’s Dominance Is the Real Story
You can’t really invest in BYD’s U.S. growth because they’re not selling here, but ignoring them would be a mistake. They’ve got nearly 20% of the global EV market and have outsold Tesla in pure battery-electrics for four straight quarters. In Europe, their sales jumped 272% while Tesla’s dropped.
BYD (BYDDF)
This matters because it shows what’s possible when you have scale, manufacturing expertise, and a product lineup that covers every price point. Tesla’s first-mover advantage is gone globally, even if they’re still dominant in the U.S. The competition is real, and it’s not coming from Silicon Valley.
The Chinese Startups Are Diverging
NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto are all fighting for survival in the world’s most competitive EV market, and it’s starting to show who’s got staying power.
NIO (NIO)
NIO delivered over 40,000 vehicles in October, up 92.6% year-over-year. Their battery-swapping tech is interesting, and they’re showing real growth.
XPeng (XPEV)
XPeng’s stock has nearly doubled in 2025, and they delivered 355,000 vehicles in the first ten months of the year – up 190%. They’re executing.
Li Auto (LI)
Li Auto’s struggling. October deliveries disappointed, and they’re pivoting to overseas markets because the domestic competition’s too intense. That’s not a good sign.
For U.S. investors, these are all geopolitical plays as much as business plays. I’m watching them, but I’m not betting real money on any of them right now.
What I’m Actually Doing
I’m overweight GM. It’s not exciting, but they’re the only company that’s figured out how to build and sell affordable EVs profitably in the U.S. market. The Equinox EV is proof that the formula works.
I’ve got a small position in Rivian because the R2 could be a game-changer, and they’ve got the cash to execute. It’s sized appropriately for the risk – if it works, great. If it doesn’t, it won’t kill me.
I’m avoiding Ford until they show me their EV losses are under control. I’m avoiding Lucid because I don’t see the path to profitability. And I’m sitting on my hands with Tesla because I don’t know how to value “maybe robotaxis work out.”
The EV transition is real. The question is which companies will still be standing when the dust settles. Right now, my money’s on the boring ones that are actually making money.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. I own positions in some of these companies. Do your own research.
