EV Stocks in September 2025: Tesla’s Crown Slips While Detroit Roars Back
After watching the EV space for the past six years, I’m seeing something I never thought I’d witness: Tesla actually losing market share to legacy automakers. Elon’s company that once owned 80% of the U.S. EV market is down to just 38% in August – the lowest since 2017. Meanwhile, GM is posting triple-digit EV sales growth and Ford is quietly building a real electric business.
The federal EV tax credit expires September 30th, which has buyers rushing to dealerships and creating a fascinating natural experiment. We’re about to see what happens when the training wheels come off the EV market, and the smart money is positioning now for the winners and losers.
The sector’s been a brutal teacher about hype versus execution. I’ve watched startups like Canoo and Fisker crater while companies like GM – yeah, Government Motors – figured out how to actually build and sell electric vehicles profitably. The landscape looks nothing like what anyone predicted in 2020.
The Tesla Reality Check
Tesla’s problems run deeper than just competition. The company’s U.S. sales dropped 9% in Q1 2025 while the overall EV market grew 11%. That’s not market maturation – that’s market rejection.
Tesla (TSLA)
The stock’s been volatile as hell in 2025, falling over 30% from December peaks before recovering somewhat. Musk’s political involvement, falling out with Trump, and focus on robotaxis instead of affordable cars has created execution risk that didn’t exist before.
The Cybertruck flopped harder than anyone wants to admit. Just 6,400 units sold in Q1 2025, down from 14,000 in Q4 2024. For all the hype, it’s selling worse than the ancient Model S and X combined. The angular design and $60,000+ price point killed mainstream appeal.
Tesla’s aging lineup is the real problem. The Model 3 and Y haven’t had meaningful updates in years while competitors roll out fresh designs with better interiors, more features, and competitive pricing. Brand fatigue is real when Musk’s politics alienate half your potential customers.
The robotaxi bet could pay off massively or be another Musk overpromise. With a $1.29 trillion market cap, Tesla’s priced for perfection in autonomous driving. If that doesn’t materialize, the stock’s expensive at any price.
The Detroit Comeback Story
General Motors has quietly become the EV success story nobody talks about. Q2 2025 EV sales jumped 111% to 46,280 units. That’s not a typo – they more than doubled EV sales year-over-year.
General Motors (GM)
The Chevrolet Equinox EV is absolutely crushing it. Over 27,000 units sold in the first half of 2025, making it the best-selling non-Tesla EV in America. Priced at $34,995 with 300+ miles of range, it hits the sweet spot Tesla missed.
GM’s strategy is smart: kill the cheap Bolt, launch premium electric trucks and SUVs, then come back with affordable mass-market vehicles. They’re not chasing Tesla’s mistakes. The company now has about 13% of the U.S. EV market and growing fast.
The transformation from bankruptcy bailout to EV leader is remarkable. GM learned from Tesla’s playbook but executed with traditional automaker discipline. No overpromising, no Twitter drama, just building and selling electric cars people actually want.
Ford Motor Company (F)
Ford’s EV story is more complicated. Q2 sales dropped 31.4% due to Mustang Mach-E recalls, but the underlying business is solid. The F-150 Lightning might not have Tesla volume, but it’s profitable and appeals to traditional truck buyers.
Ford’s overhauling its EV strategy to focus on affordable models under $30,000, though those won’t launch until 2027. The company’s playing catch-up but has manufacturing expertise and dealer networks Tesla lacks.
The stock’s been beaten down, but Ford’s building a real EV business methodically. Less exciting than startup promises, more likely to generate actual returns for investors.
The Startup Survivors and Casualties
The EV startup landscape is littered with corpses. Companies that had billion-dollar valuations are trading for pennies while others have disappeared entirely.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
The Amazon-backed startup has fallen 90% from its peak but might be the one startup worth watching. The stock’s down about 30% in 2025, creating potential opportunity for patient money.
Rivian’s launching the R2 SUV in 2026 at around $45,000 – finally targeting mass market instead of luxury buyers. Current R1T and R1S trucks cost over $100,000 loaded, limiting addressable market to wealthy early adopters.
The company ended 2024 with $7.7 billion cash, enough runway to reach profitability if the R2 succeeds. Management targets EBITDA breakeven by 2027, which seems realistic if they execute.
The Volkswagen partnership provides both validation and capital. Getting $6.6 billion DOE loan for second plant shows government confidence. Rivian’s the startup most likely to become a real automaker.
Lucid Group (LCID)
The luxury EV maker trades at 7.7x sales with just $1.6 billion cash – much less cushion than Rivian. Recent CEO departure adds execution risk to already ambitious timeline.
The Gravity SUV launch provides near-term catalyst, but Lucid needs mass-market vehicles by 2026 to survive. Saudi backing helps, but the company burns cash faster than most startups.
Market cap of just $8 billion means huge upside if they execute, massive downside if they don’t. Pure speculation at this point.
Fisker (FSR) & Canoo (GOEV)
Both companies are essentially worthless now. Fisker’s manufacturing partner strategy failed spectacularly. Canoo’s subscription model never gained traction. These represent the graveyard of EV startup dreams and investor capital.
The Chinese Competition
Chinese EV makers are dominating globally but face U.S. market barriers that won’t disappear soon.
NIO (NIO)
The battery-swapping technology leader reported 39% sales growth in 2024 to 221,970 EVs. Innovation in battery technology could be game-changing if adopted globally.
Geopolitical tensions limit U.S. expansion opportunities. Great business model trapped in wrong geography for American investors.
Li Auto (LI) & XPeng (XPEV)
Both companies posted strong 2024 growth – Li Auto up 33% to 500,508 vehicles, XPeng up 34% to 190,068 vehicles. But U.S. market access remains limited by trade tensions.
XPeng’s launching mass-market Mona brand globally in 2026, potentially creating affordable competition for Tesla and others.
The Federal Tax Credit Cliff
September 30th marks the end of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, creating a massive demand cliff. Cox Automotive data shows buyers rushing to purchase before expiration, with July EV sales up 26.4% month-over-month.
Analysts predict EV sales could drop 50% after the credit expires. That sounds extreme, but UC Berkeley research suggested 27% decline is realistic. Either way, October sales will be ugly.
Smart automakers are preparing with price cuts and incentives. Lucid already announced $7,500 discounts to replace the federal credit. GM learned this lesson when they hit the credit cap years ago and simply cut Bolt prices by $7,500.
The credit expiration will separate sustainable EV demand from artificial incentive-driven demand. Companies with compelling value propositions survive; those dependent on subsidies don’t.
Position Sizing in a Volatile Sector
EV stocks require careful position sizing given their volatility. These aren’t steady utilities – they’re growth stocks with commodity exposure and regulatory risk.
I’m looking at about 3-4% sector exposure, weighted toward companies with actual revenue and clear paths to profitability. GM gets the largest allocation as the safest way to play EV growth. Tesla gets a smaller position sized for its risk/reward profile.
Rivian represents the startup lottery ticket – small position with huge upside if R2 succeeds. Everything else is either too risky (Lucid) or too geopolitically exposed (Chinese names) for meaningful allocation.
The key insight: buy companies building and selling EVs today, not promises of future greatness. Revenue and execution matter more than technology demos and Twitter hype.
The Investment Thesis for 2026
The EV transition is real and accelerating, but market share distribution will look nothing like 2020 predictions. Legacy automakers with manufacturing expertise, dealer networks, and customer relationships are winning against startups with better PR.
Tesla remains dominant but vulnerable. The company’s trillion-dollar valuation assumes robotaxi success and continued market leadership. Both are questionable given current trends.
GM represents the best risk-adjusted way to play EV growth. Traditional automaker valuation with startup-like EV growth rates. Ford offers similar exposure at lower prices but with more execution risk.
Rivian is the highest-conviction startup play if you believe in the EV truck/SUV market and Amazon partnership. Everything else is speculation.
The sector will be volatile through the credit expiration and 2025 election uncertainty. But the long-term trends favor electrification, and some of these companies will generate enormous returns for patient investors.
Just remember: buying EV stocks isn’t buying the future of transportation. It’s buying specific companies with specific execution capabilities and competitive positions. Choose accordingly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and doesn’t constitute investment advice. EV stocks are volatile and speculative. Always conduct your own research and understand the risks before investing.