Look, I’ve been trading EV stocks since before they were cool, back when Tesla was just some weird startup that everyone said would never work. I rode the bubble up, watched it crash, and now I’m picking through the wreckage looking for survivors.
September 2025 feels like we’re finally past the worst of the EV shakeout. The federal $7,500 EV tax credit expires at the end of this month, Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles are biting, and half the EV startups are running on fumes. But here’s the thing: that’s when you find the real opportunities.
The EV Reality Check Nobody Talks About
Tesla just reported its second straight quarter of declining auto sales, down 16% to $16.7 billion in automotive revenue. The stock’s down 24% this year, worst performer among tech’s megacaps. Even Elon admitted there could be “a few rough quarters” ahead.
Rivian’s production dropped to 49,476 vehicles in 2024, down 13.5% from 2023. Lucid is burning cash like it’s going out of style. Li Auto plummeted 35% last year. This isn’t the triumphant EV revolution we were promised.
But that’s exactly why I’m paying attention. When an entire sector gets beaten up this badly, and the fundamentals are still intact, smart money starts accumulating.
My Current EV Holdings (And Why I’m Still Here)
Tesla (TSLA) – The Wounded King
Yeah, Tesla’s been a disaster this year. Down 24%, missing revenue estimates, Elon making promises about robotaxis he can’t keep. I’ve been holding since $180 (pre-split), rode it to over $400, and watched it slide back to around $350.
But here’s why I’m not selling: Tesla isn’t just a car company anymore. They’re ramping up Optimus robot production, testing robotaxis in Austin, and their energy storage business hit all-time highs. The automotive business is struggling, but the AI and robotics angle could be massive.
Plus, Tesla still delivered 1.8 million vehicles in 2024 with $89 billion in revenue. They’re not going anywhere.
Rivian (RIVN) – The Amazon-Backed Survivor
This one’s been painful. Rivian IPO’d at $78, hit $172, and now trades around $13. I bought in at $45 thinking I was getting a bargain. Wrong.
But I’m still holding because Rivian has something most EV startups don’t: Amazon’s backing and a real partnership with Volkswagen. The R2 SUV launches in 2026 at $45,000, which could finally bring them to mass market. They ended the quarter with $8.5 billion in liquidity, so they’re not going bankrupt anytime soon.
Sometimes you hold the bags until the thesis plays out.
Li Auto (LI) – The Chinese Dark Horse
Li Auto crashed 35% in 2024, and honestly, most people have written off Chinese EV stocks entirely. That’s exactly why I have a position.
Li Auto focuses on extended-range EVs (basically hybrids that can run on electric or gas), which solves the range anxiety problem. In a market where pure EVs are struggling, that hybrid approach might be smarter than anyone realized.
Plus, Chinese EV exports dipped in March, but domestic sales surged 14.4%. If they can crack the U.S. market despite tariffs, this could be huge.
The Ones I’m Watching (But Not Owning Yet)
Lucid (LCID) – The Luxury Longshot
Lucid stock has fallen 92% from its highs. The Air sedan won Car of the Year, their Gravity SUV is finally launching, but they’re still burning through cash at an alarming rate.
The Saudi government owns 60% through their sovereign wealth fund, so they’ve got deep pockets. But producing only 20,000 vehicles this year doesn’t exactly scream “mass market success.”
I’d consider buying if it drops below $2, but right now it feels like catching a falling knife.
NIO (NIO) – The Battery Swap Play
NIO’s battery swapping technology is genuinely innovative. Instead of charging your car, you just swap out the entire battery pack in minutes. It’s brilliant tech that solves real problems.
But they’re Chinese, tariffs are crushing imports, and their U.S. expansion plans are on hold. The technology advantage might not be enough to overcome the political headwinds.
ChargePoint (CHPT) – The Infrastructure Play
Someone’s gotta build the charging infrastructure for all these EVs. ChargePoint is one of the leaders, but they’re losing money on every charger they install.
The infrastructure play makes sense long-term, but the path to profitability is murky. I’d rather own the companies making the cars than the ones building the gas stations.
What Could Go Right (Finally)
Trump’s tariffs could actually help domestic EV producers like Tesla and Rivian by making Chinese competitors more expensive. The expiration of federal tax credits eliminates a subsidy cliff that’s been hanging over the market.
Interest rates are coming down, which should help with auto financing. Gas prices could spike due to Middle East tensions, making EVs more attractive again.
Most importantly, we’re probably close to peak pessimism. When everyone hates a sector, that’s often when the best opportunities emerge.
What Could Still Go Wrong
The EV transition could take way longer than anyone expected. Traditional automakers like Ford and GM have way more capital and manufacturing expertise than the startups.
Chinese EV makers could flood global markets with cheap, high-quality vehicles that undercut everyone else. Battery technology could hit a wall, or new competition from hydrogen fuel cells could emerge.
Consumer demand could stay weak if the economy tanks. Higher for longer interest rates could kill auto sales completely.
My Strategy for Playing the EV Recovery
I’ve got 60% in Tesla because they’re the most diversified (cars, energy, AI, robots), 25% in Rivian because of their backing and truck focus, and 15% in Li Auto as a China play.
Could this all blow up? Absolutely. The EV sector is still in shakeout mode, and most of these companies are burning cash. But the ones that survive could be massive winners as the transition accelerates.
The key is position sizing. I’m not betting the farm, but I’m betting enough that if the EV revolution finally happens, I’ll participate meaningfully.
The Bottom Line
EV sales rose 7% in the U.S. last year despite all the doom and gloom. The transition is happening, just slower and messier than the bulls predicted. Companies like Tesla, Rivian, and Li Auto are working through real challenges, but they’ve got the capital and technology to survive.
Will 2026 be the year EVs finally break out? Maybe. Will some of these companies fail completely? Probably. But the ones that make it through this shakeout could deliver massive returns to patient investors.
I’ve been wrong about timing before, but I’ve learned that being early looks a lot like being wrong until it doesn’t.
The Fine Print
I’m a financial advisor, but I’m not YOUR financial advisor – there’s a difference. EV stocks are volatile as hell, most of these companies lose money, and this whole sector could crater further. Do your own research, talk to people smarter than me, and never bet money you need for rent.
But if you believe the world is going electric eventually, these beaten-up stocks might be where fortunes get made.