Look, I’ve been trading steel stocks since before it was cool, back when everyone thought the industry was dead and buried. They called it a “sunset sector” while I was loading up shares at basement prices. Now? Steel’s having its moment, and I’m sitting pretty.
The market’s been all over the place this year, but here’s what I know: steel isn’t going anywhere. You can’t build data centers, infrastructure, or electric vehicle charging stations without it. Trump’s doubling down on tariffs, China’s pumping stimulus, and the U.S. government just allocated $62 billion for infrastructure in 2025.
I’ve made money in steel, lost money in steel, and learned some hard lessons along the way. Here’s where I’m putting my money right now.
Why I’m Bullish on Steel Right Now
The ferrous scrap market has seen three consecutive months of price increases, with Chicago’s prime scrap grades reaching $475 per gross ton in March 2025—a 25% rise over three months. When scrap prices rise, finished steel follows.
Trump doubled import tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, and the stocks went nuts. Steel Dynamics and Nucor jumped 11.5% and 14% respectively in after-hours trading when he announced it. Cleveland-Cliffs? Up 33%.
But here’s the thing most people miss: global steel demand is projected to grow at a 4.6% CAGR through 2030, fueled by infrastructure, urbanization, and the transition to electric vehicles. This isn’t just a tariff play, it’s a structural shift.
The Infrastructure Goldmine
The federal government’s allocation of $62 billion for infrastructure development in 2025 is just the beginning. There have been $1.4 trillion worth of mega projects announced since 2021, all of which will make heavy use of steel.
I’ve been through enough cycles to know that when governments start spending big on infrastructure, steel companies print money. The question isn’t if, it’s which ones will benefit most.
My Current Steel Holdings
Nucor (NUE) – The Steady Eddie
This is my biggest position, and here’s why: Nucor doesn’t just make steel, they’ve revolutionized how it’s made. Electric arc furnaces, recycling scrap metal, keeping costs low while everyone else struggles with legacy blast furnaces.
I first bought NUE at $45 back in 2020, watched it hit $150 during the 2021 steel boom, didn’t sell enough (classic mistake), and rode it back down. Currently trading around $138, and I’m still holding because these guys know how to make money in any cycle.
Nucor has proven to be much more consistent through the cyclical steel industry’s ups and downs. They’ve stayed profitable through entire steel cycles when competitors were bleeding red ink.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) – The Growth Machine
Steel Dynamics is like Nucor’s scrappier younger brother. They use the same efficient electric arc technology but they’re growing faster and expanding aggressively. STLD is ramping up operations at its new state-of-the-art electric arc furnace flat-rolled steel mill in Sinton, TX with a production capacity of roughly three million tons per year.
This stock has been my best performer lately. Steel Dynamics has gained 7% this year while Nucor and Cleveland Cliffs shares have fallen 7.2% and 39%, respectively. Sometimes the upstart beats the incumbent.
They raised their quarterly dividend by 9% and bought back $250 million in shares this quarter. That’s confidence.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) – The Contrarian Bet
This one’s been painful. Cleveland Cliffs shares have fallen 39% this year, and I’ve been averaging down because I think the market’s being way too harsh.
CLF is tied to the American auto industry, which has been struggling with high interest rates and economic uncertainty. But here’s my thesis: when auto production rebounds (and it will), CLF will snap back hard. They’re a key supplier to Detroit, and their blast furnace model works great when demand is strong.
Yeah, it’s a risky play, but sometimes you gotta buy when there’s blood in the streets.
U.S. Steel (X) – The Sentimental Favorite
Old school steel, American icon, been around forever. The Nippon Steel acquisition drama has this stock all over the place, but that’s creating opportunity.
I’ve got a smaller position here because X is less efficient than the mini-mill guys, but they’ve got scale and history. If infrastructure spending really takes off, U.S. Steel will benefit just from sheer volume.
The International Plays I’m Watching
ArcelorMittal (MT) – The Global Giant
If you want exposure to global steel demand, ArcelorMittal is your ticket. They’re everywhere, which brings both risk and opportunity. When China’s building boom reignites or Europe gets serious about infrastructure, MT benefits.
The stock’s been beaten up, but that’s when the best opportunities emerge.
Ternium (TX) – The Emerging Markets Play
Latin America needs development. Roads, buildings, airports, all of it takes steel. Ternium plays in that region with cheaper labor costs than the old-school giants.
It’s a more speculative play, but emerging markets have a hunger for infrastructure that could translate into serious steel demand.
The Specialty Plays
Commercial Metals (CMC) – The Rebar King
Rebar is the unsung hero of construction. You won’t see it, but it’s in every piece of reinforced concrete in every modern building. CMC specializes in recycling scrap into rebar and construction steel.
With all the infrastructure spending coming, these guys are perfectly positioned. It’s not flashy, but reliable profits come from essential building blocks.
Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) – The Diversification Play
I like companies that don’t put all their eggs in one basket. Reliance deals in both steel and aluminum, giving them flexibility. If automakers want aluminum one year and steel’s slumping, they can adjust.
That adaptability is essential in cyclical markets. They’re big in distribution too, meaning they benefit from any uptick in demand regardless of which metal is hot.
What Could Go Wrong
Let me be real about the risks, because I’ve been burned before.
Economic recession could freeze capital spending overnight. Those infrastructure projects could get delayed or cancelled. Global trade wars could backfire spectacularly.
New capacity is scheduled to come online in 2025, particularly for rebar products, with Steel producers including Nucor, CMC and new market entrant Hybar expected to add more than 1.5 million short tons of capacity by 2025. More supply could pressure prices.
Interest rates could stay higher longer, killing construction demand. Auto production could stay weak if consumers stop buying cars.
My Current Strategy
I’ve got 50% in the efficient producers (Nucor, Steel Dynamics), 30% in the cyclical plays (CLF, U.S. Steel), and 20% in specialty/international names (CMC, MT, RS).
The steel industry is cyclical as hell, but the fundamentals are solid. Global Steel Structure market size is forecasted to achieve USD 24.76 Billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 5.44%. That’s real growth driven by real demand.
The Bottom Line
HRC prices could reach $950/ton by Q2 2025 if demand maintains current trajectory. Trump’s tariffs are creating pricing leverage for domestic producers. Infrastructure spending is finally happening.
Will every steel stock make money? Hell no. But the companies that can produce efficiently and adapt to changing markets will do well.
I’ve been playing this game long enough to know that when governments start throwing money at infrastructure and trade wars create artificial scarcity, steel stocks can deliver serious returns.
The key is picking the right ones and not getting too greedy when they run.
The Fine Print
I’m a financial advisor, but I’m not YOUR financial advisor – there’s a difference. Steel stocks are cyclical and volatile. This could all go to zero tomorrow. Do your own research, talk to people smarter than me, and never bet money you need for rent.
But if you’re gonna gamble anyway, at least gamble on something the world actually needs to build stuff.
