Look, I’ve been calling copper the forgotten stepchild of metals for years. While everyone’s been chasing gold and silver like magpies after shiny objects, I’ve been quietly building positions in copper stocks. Now? The trade’s finally paying off, and I wish I’d bet bigger.
Copper hit $4.49 per pound this week, up 10.2% from last year. That might not sound like Tesla money, but in the boring world of industrial metals, that’s rocket fuel. And here’s the thing that has me actually excited: we’re just getting started.
Why I’m Doubling Down on Copper Right Now
I’ll cut to the chase. Copper hit a record $5.65 per pound in July 2025 before settling back, and every smart money manager I know is loading up. Trump’s tariff threats created chaos in the first half of the year, but that also created opportunities.
The fundamentals are stupid simple: global copper consumption is set to grow around 2.9% in 2025, driven by sectors linked to the energy transition. Electric vehicles, data centers for AI, renewable energy infrastructure. They all need copper, and lots of it.
Meanwhile, supply is tighter than a drum. S&P Global’s calling for a deficit of about 52,000 metric tons this year, blowing out to around 848,000 metric tons by 2025. When demand outstrips supply by that much, prices go one direction: up.
The Tariff Wild Card
Here’s what really has me paying attention: Trump announced 50% copper tariffs starting August 1st, and U.S. imports were up 129% year-over-year through May as companies front-loaded inventory. That created a massive inventory build-up, but also set up a supply crunch for the rest of the world.
The smart play? Buy the companies that produce the stuff everyone needs.
My Current Copper Holdings (And Why I Own Them)
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) – The Workhorse
This is my biggest position, and here’s why: Freeport is the world’s second-largest copper producer and the largest publicly traded copper-focused company. In 2024, it produced 4.2 billion pounds of copper.
I bought my first shares at $28 three years ago, watched them crater to $15 during the COVID mess, didn’t sell (probably should have), and now they’re back in the mid-40s. FCX is targeting an annual run rate of 300 million pounds by year-end, and their expansion projects in Arizona and Chile could double production at some operations.
The dividend isn’t huge, but they’ve got a 50% free cash flow return policy. When copper prices spike, the cash flows to shareholders fast.
Southern Copper (SCCO) – The Cash Machine
Southern Copper boasts the industry’s largest reserves at 44.8 million tons. Think about that. While other miners are worried about running out of ore, SCCO has decades of production locked up.
I’ve owned this one since 2020, and it’s been my most boring, profitable holding. SCCO produced 483,395 tons of copper in the first half of 2025, on track for their 965,300 ton target. The company generated $4.42 billion in operating cash flow last year, up 24% from 2023.
Sure, labor costs are rising and they’re dealing with permit delays in Mexico, but when you own that much copper in the ground, you can afford to wait.
BHP Group (BHP) – The Diversification Play
BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile is the world’s largest copper operation, and they’ve earmarked $10-14 billion for a massive expansion. This isn’t some junior miner hoping to strike it rich. This is a proven operation getting bigger.
I like BHP because they’re not just copper. Iron ore, coal, petroleum. When one commodity crashes, another usually picks up the slack. Plus, that 11.88% dividend yield doesn’t hurt while I wait for copper to moon.
Rio Tinto (RIO) – The Long Game
Rio’s Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia is set to double production by 2030, aiming to rank among the world’s top copper operations. The Resolution Copper project with BHP could meet 25% of U.S. national demand if it ever gets approved.
That 10.35% dividend yield is basically paying me to wait for their growth projects to come online. In this business, patience pays.
The Smaller Plays I’m Watching
First Quantum Minerals (FM)
This one’s been a rollercoaster. Operations in Africa and Europe, ambitious expansion plans, and enough drama to fill a Netflix series. I’ve got a small position because when African copper mines work, they really work. When they don’t… well, that’s why it’s a small position.
Teck Resources (TECK)
The stock delivered an impressive 102% return over the past 12 months, with Deutsche Bank recently upgrading to “Buy” with a $30 price target. Diversified portfolio including copper, zinc, and other metals with global operations.
I bought some after the massive rally because sometimes momentum continues longer than logic suggests.
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN)
Pure speculation play. Development-stage company with large-scale copper projects in the pipeline. Higher risk, potentially massive rewards if their projects hit. I’ve got enough position to matter if it works, small enough that I won’t cry if it doesn’t.
What Could Wreck This Trade
Let me be honest about the risks, because I’ve been burned before by getting too cocky.
Economic recession could freeze capital spending overnight. Oil price shocks from Middle East conflicts could create stagflationary pressure. China could slow down more than expected (though their recent stimulus suggests otherwise).
The loss of Cobre Panama took 300,000 tons of annual production offline, but if it restarts, that surplus could keep the market comfortable through 2029.
Trump’s tariffs could backfire spectacularly. Trade wars rarely have winners, only degrees of losing.
How I’m Actually Playing This
I’ve got 60% in the established producers (FCX, SCCO, BHP, RIO), 30% in the growth stories (Teck, First Quantum), and 10% in pure speculation (Ivanhoe).
Could copper crater 30% tomorrow? Absolutely. Could it double in the next two years as supply deficits bite? Also possible.
The beauty of copper is that it’s not going away. Until someone invents a better conductor or the world stops using electricity, we’re going to need more of this stuff every year.
My Take
Fastmarkets expects copper consumption to be driven significantly by sectors linked to the energy transition through 2034, including electric vehicles and renewable energy applications. The structural supply deficit will likely require increased investment in production facilities.
I’ve been trading metals for 15 years, and I’ve never seen fundamentals this compelling. Sure, the stocks are volatile, but the underlying demand story is solid.
Will I get rich quick? Probably not. Will I make steady money as the world electrifies everything? That’s the bet I’m making.
The Fine Print
I’m a financial advisor, but I’m not YOUR financial advisor – there’s a difference. This could all go to zero tomorrow. Do your own research, talk to people smarter than me, and never bet money you need for rent.
But if you’re gonna gamble anyway, at least gamble on something the world actually needs.
