Best Beer Stocks for December 2025: Why I’m Still Betting on Consolidation

The alcoholic beverage sector is down 16% while everything else rallied. Beer stocks are getting destroyed, craft breweries are closing, and young people would rather hit a vape pen than crack open a cold one.

Usually I’d say “buy when there’s blood in the streets.” But some of these companies actually deserve to die.

I’ve been trading this sector since 2013. This is the ugliest it’s ever looked. But when an entire industry implodes, the survivors usually do pretty well.

What Changed Since My September Call

Back in September, I said we might be near a bottom. I started nibbling on positions because expectations were so low that decent earnings were moving stocks 10%.

Three months later? I was half right. Some positions worked (BUD and STZ are up), others didn’t (TAP kept bleeding). The thesis hasn’t changed, but the timeline got longer. Consolidation takes years, not quarters.

My conviction score system (new for December):

• 1-10 scale combining valuation, market position, and execution risk
• What specifically changed since September
• The one risk that keeps me up at night

If you’re looking for safe dividend plays, this isn’t your sector. These are turnaround bets on oligopoly winners during an industry shakeout.

What’s Actually Happening vs. What People Think

Everyone’s panicking about “declining beer consumption” and “generational shifts.” Yeah, young people drink less beer than their parents. They also can’t afford houses and live with roommates until they’re 30. Maybe there’s a connection?

The real story is market share consolidation. All those craft breweries that opened during the 2010s boom? Half of them are broke. The Brewers Association says craft held 13.3% market share in 2024, down from peak hype levels.

Meanwhile, AB InBev reported 6.5% EBITDA growth and 8.7% EPS growth in Q2. Not because they’re selling more beer, but because they’re charging more for it and the competition is dying off. That’s how oligopolies work.

Trump’s aluminum tariffs hit in April, 25% on imports. Sounds terrible for beer companies, right? Actually helps the big guys who make everything domestically while crushing small breweries that import specialty ingredients. Sometimes regulation accidentally picks winners.

The Stocks I’m Actually Holding

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD)

Conviction Score: 8/10

I avoided this thing for two years after the Bud Light fiasco. Q2 numbers made me swallow my pride. They’re basically printing money now.

Revenue per hectoliter up 4.9% through pure pricing power. Their premium brands like Michelob Ultra keep stealing share from craft beer. When millennials want to feel fancy but can’t afford $18 cocktails, they buy Mich Ultra instead of local IPAs.

The BEES platform grew 63% to $785 million. That’s their B2B marketplace. Most people don’t get it, but controlling distribution is more valuable than owning brands. Try launching a beer without AB InBev’s distribution network, good luck getting shelf space.

What changed since September: Stock’s up about 12% since I started buying. The Bud Light boycott is officially over, proven by actual sales data. Conservative drinkers moved on to the next outrage.

The risk I’m watching: They trade at 16.7X forward earnings with a 1.5% dividend. In a market where Tesla trades at 60X+ with no dividend, that’s almost insulting how cheap it is. But “cheap” can stay cheap if volumes keep declining faster than pricing can offset.

Constellation Brands (STZ)

Conviction Score: 9/10

This has been my best position since 2022. They own Corona and Modelo, which are basically the iPhone of Mexican imports in the US.

Young people love Mexican beer. It’s hoppy without being pretentious, goes with tacos, and doesn’t make you look like a craft beer snob. STZ has bulletproof distribution and pricing power.

Company guides for 6-8% sales growth when the overall beer market is shrinking. That’s what happens when you own the right brands during consolidation.

What changed since September: Nothing. This keeps working exactly as expected. Sometimes boring execution is the best story.

The risk I’m watching: They’ve got cannabis exposure through Canopy Growth. I’m not counting on federal legalization, but if it happens, that optionality is worth billions. Meanwhile you get paid to wait. Risk is they’ve already captured most of the Mexican import growth and competition finally shows up.

Molson Coors (TAP)

Conviction Score: 5/10

This one hurts to look at. Down 50% from 2016 highs and kept falling through September. Still my worst performer.

They own Coors, Miller, Blue Moon, brands that aren’t going anywhere despite declining volumes. Company took a massive goodwill writedown in 2022, basically admitting they overpaid during the craft boom. That’s old news now.

Current management is cutting costs and partnering with Coca-Cola on Topo Chico hard seltzer. If North American beer consumption ever stabilizes, TAP will benefit from massive operating leverage.

What changed since September: I trimmed this position by 40% in November. The turnaround is taking longer than expected and opportunity cost matters. Still holding some because deep value plays can explode when sentiment finally shifts.

The risk I’m watching: This is a deep value play, not a growth story. Could be a multi-bagger from here or could go to zero. That’s why it’s now a smaller position than it was in September.

Boston Beer (SAM)

Conviction Score: 6/10

Down 80% from peaks after hard seltzer imploded. White Claw and Truly were supposed to grow forever. They didn’t.

But SAM is still profitable and owns the largest craft operation in the US. Samuel Adams isn’t disappearing, and their Beyond Beer stuff keeps outpacing traditional categories.

What changed since September: They reported Q3 earnings that weren’t terrible. Volumes stabilizing, cost cuts working. Stock bounced 15% in two days on “less bad” news. That’s what happens when expectations hit rock bottom.

The risk I’m watching: At these prices, they don’t need to hit home runs. Just stabilize volumes and cut costs. Operating leverage could drive big returns if they execute. But “if they execute” is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

Diageo (DEO)

Conviction Score: 7/10

Not really a beer company, but they’re expanding into beer and RTDs while everyone else is panicking. Premium focus means higher margins.

What changed since September: This is my hedge against pure beer plays. If beer keeps declining, they’ve got spirits. If RTDs explode, they’re positioned. Portfolio construction, not speculation.

The risk I’m watching: They’re not immune to consumer spending pullbacks. Premium spirits get hit first when wallets tighten. But their diversification is exactly why I own it.

The One Trend Everyone’s Missing

Non-alcoholic beer sales up 32% while total alcohol grew 1%. That’s not a fad, millennials want the social experience without feeling like garbage the next day.

Companies with strong NA portfolios will dominate this trend. Athletic Brewing is crushing it, but they’re private. The public companies finally waking up to this are worth watching.

The technology angle is huge too. AB InBev’s digital platform generated $785 million in transactions, but nobody talks about it. Direct-to-consumer and supply chain optimization create moats that craft breweries can’t replicate.

Major sporting events coming up, FIFA 2026, Winter Olympics. Global brands like Budweiser and Corona always benefit from these. Easy category activation when people are already drinking and watching TV.

My Actual Position Sizing in December

I’m at about 3% of my portfolio in beer stocks, down from 4% in September. Split like this:

• 45% STZ (was 35% in September) – increased because it keeps working
• 30% BUD (was 25%) – increased after Bud Light recovery confirmed
• 15% TAP (was 25%) – cut this significantly, losing patience
• 10% SAM and DEO combined (was 15%) – trimmed the speculative stuff

This isn’t a sector where you swing for the fences. These are cash flow machines navigating cyclical headwinds. Upside is moderate but probable, downside limited by asset values and dividends.

I’m keeping some cash for when the craft shakeout accelerates. Quality brands will become available at distressed prices, and the big players have balance sheets to acquire them.

The Reality Check

Will young people suddenly start drinking more beer? Probably not. Will the industry consolidate around fewer, stronger players? Definitely happening already.

Consumer preferences are shifting, not disappearing. People still want to relax with a drink, they’re just pickier about brands. That selectivity benefits companies with distribution muscle and century-old brand equity.

Sometimes the best strategy is betting on oligopolies during industry downturns. The survivors get pricing power and market share. That’s what’s happening in beer right now.

The numbers don’t lie, these companies generate billions in free cash flow that has to go somewhere. Share buybacks, dividend increases, strategic acquisitions. All good for shareholders who can stomach the volatility.

Standard disclaimers: Not a financial advisor, this isn’t advice, you could lose money, do your own research, consult professionals, etc. Beer stocks are cyclical and face real headwinds. But sometimes real problems create real opportunities.